Europe is on the cusp of a profound automotive transformation, with battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) projected to dominate new car sales across its major markets by 2035. This decisive shift, driven by robust policy mandates, continuous technological advancements, and evolving market dynamics, signifies a critical tipping point in the continent's journey towards sustainable mobility. Industry analysts indicate that this rapid acceleration in EV adoption will reshape the European automotive landscape, impacting everything from manufacturing to infrastructure and consumer behavior.

The continent's sales figures illustrate this accelerating transition. By 2025, BEVs alone are expected to comprise 15-20% of new vehicle sales, with plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) pushing the total electrified share to nearly a quarter. This initial foothold is set to accelerate steeply, with BEVs projected to account for 30-40% of new car sales by 2027, potentially bringing total electrified vehicles to half of all new sales. By 2030, BEVs are anticipated to make up approximately 50% of new car sales, aligning with the EU's ambitious target of reducing fleet-wide CO₂ emissions by at least 55% compared to 2021 levels. The UK has even more aggressive targets, aiming for 80% zero-emission new car sales by 2030. The transition is expected to be largely complete by 2035, with over 90% of new cars sold in the EU being BEVs, as regulations effectively prohibit new internal combustion engine (ICE) sales.

Despite rapid new sales, fleet-wide EV penetration will lag. In 2023, only about 2% of Europe's 294 million passenger cars were fully electric. Projections suggest that by 2030, approximately 20% of all passenger vehicles on European roads will be electric, equating to around 50 million cars. By 2035, this share could reach nearly half of the total fleet. A critical policy challenge arises in managing the fate of millions of used ICE vehicles. Without coordinated regulations or export controls, these vehicles may be exported to developing countries, potentially undermining global emissions reduction goals. Policymakers must consider measures like scrappage incentives or standards for exported vehicles to ensure a holistic climate benefit.

Significant regional disparities persist. Northern and Western European countries, including Norway, Sweden, Germany, and the Netherlands, lead in EV adoption due to higher incomes, stronger incentives, and denser charging infrastructure. Norway, for instance, surpassed 80% BEV sales in 2024. Conversely, Southern and Eastern European nations like Italy, Spain, and Poland lag, reporting less than 5% EV sales in 2023, primarily due to lower incomes and sparse charging networks. While these disparities are expected to narrow, they will not disappear entirely by 2030, necessitating targeted support measures to ensure equitable transition across all member states.

The shift to EVs carries major infrastructure implications. Traditional gasoline and diesel fueling stations face significant contraction, with some already converting to charging hubs, as seen in Norway. The vehicle maintenance sector will also undergo dramatic changes; EVs require fewer repairs, prompting auto service businesses to adapt by retraining employees and focusing on electric-specific diagnostics and software updates. Crucially, scaling charging infrastructure is paramount. Europe will need millions of public chargers by 2030—estimates range from 3.5 million to 8.8 million, a substantial increase from the approximately 630,000 available in 2023. EU policies mandating high-speed charging stations every 60 kilometers along major highways by 2025 are driving rapid expansion through public-private partnerships.