California's Electric Vehicle Sales Cool in Q2 Amidst Shifting Incentives and Economic Headwinds
Key Insights
Southern California is dedicating over $650 million in new and ongoing incentives to accelerate the adoption of clean commercial transportation technologies.
The region’s comprehensive public incentive ecosystem, including federal, state, and local programs, aims to improve air quality and drive economic progress.
Fleets can strategically combine multiple funding streams, potentially covering over 75% of project costs for zero-emission and near-zero vehicle deployments.
Ongoing initiatives from ports and state agencies signal a sustained commitment to decarbonizing heavy-duty transportation beyond current funding cycles.
Southern California is reinforcing its commitment to decarbonizing the commercial transportation sector, earmarking over $650 million in new and existing incentives to accelerate the adoption of zero-emission and near-zero technologies. This substantial financial commitment, stemming from a confluence of federal, state, and local initiatives, underscores the region's resolve to combat persistent air quality challenges and foster sustainable economic growth, even amidst broader economic uncertainties. The strategic allocation of these funds positions Southern California as a pivotal hub for clean transportation innovation, offering unprecedented opportunities for trucking fleets and infrastructure developers.
At the core of this robust incentive landscape is the Hybrid and Zero-Emission Truck and Bus Voucher Incentive Project (HVIP), which is anticipated to reopen later this year, providing crucial point-of-sale vouchers for zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs). Complementing HVIP, the California Energy Commission's EnergIIZE Commercial Vehicles Project continues to support electric vehicle infrastructure, with dedicated funding streams for transit agencies and drayage fleets. Off-highway operators can also access the Volkswagen Mitigation Trust and prepare for the next round of the Clean Off-Road Equipment Voucher Incentive Project (CORE), set to open in August exclusively for small businesses. While the South Coast Air Quality Management District’s (South Coast AQMD) Carl Moyer Program has concluded for the current year, its expected return in early 2026 will likely inject over $50 million annually for on-road, off-road, and infrastructure projects, historically experiencing high demand. Utility providers, including Southern California Edison (SCE) and Southern California Gas Company (SoCalGas), further bolster the ecosystem with programs like SCE’s Charge Ready Transport for EV infrastructure and SoCalGas’s incentives for renewable natural gas (RNG) and hydrogen fuel cell technologies, ensuring a fuel-agnostic approach to fleet decarbonization.
The coming months will witness a significant expansion of available funding. South Coast AQMD is poised to launch several new programs under its Climate Pollution Reduction Grant and Clean Heavy-Duty Vehicle Grant Program awards, collectively representing hundreds of millions of dollars for a diverse array of on-road, off-road, and infrastructure projects. Additionally, mitigation fees collected through the Warehouse Actions and Investments to Reduce Emissions (WAIRE) Rule are projected for release as early as September, unlocking millions more for cleaner equipment investments. This multi-faceted funding architecture, totaling over $650 million this summer, presents a unique opportunity for fleets to strategically stack incentives, potentially covering more than 75% of total project costs. Early and strategic engagement with these programs will be critical for maximizing long-term operational and environmental benefits.
Looking ahead, the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach have outlined six new Clean Air Action Plan (CAAP) Plus measures, targeting a 40% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions below 1990 levels by 2030 and an 80% reduction by 2050. These measures introduce innovative financing mechanisms, including a zero-emission drayage truck utilization incentive and a zero-emission locomotive demonstration program. Concurrently, the California Energy Commission and California Air Resources Board (CARB) are preparing multi-year funding strategies, contingent on the state’s annual budget process. A reimagined Clean Fuel Rewards Program, historically focused on light-duty vehicles, is also being retooled to support medium- and heavy-duty fleets, with potential funding exceeding $100 million. While the post-2026 funding landscape remains subject to policy shifts, the current surge in available capital provides a critical window for fleets to initiate and scale their transition to cleaner operations.