China is rapidly solidifying its position as Cuba's leading energy development partner, quietly initiating 55 new photovoltaic solar parks across the island in 2025, with plans for a total of 2,000 MW by 2028. This substantial investment, evidenced by increasing Chinese shipping traffic at Mariel port delivering solar panels and equipment, directly addresses Cuba's severe energy crisis, marked by frequent grid collapses and prolonged blackouts. The strategic move by Beijing contrasts sharply with Russia's largely unfulfilled promises of economic revitalization, highlighting a significant geopolitical shift in the Caribbean nation's international alliances.

On-the-ground observations, including a Reuters review of various project sites, indicate tangible progress on Chinese-backed initiatives. For instance, outside Jatibonico, a 21 MW solar park is under construction, part of the broader effort. This proactive approach by China comes as Cuba grapples with acute shortages of food, fuel, and medicine, exacerbated by renewed U.S. sanctions. The country's national grid has experienced four collapses in the past year alone, underscoring the urgent need for reliable power generation.

In stark contrast, many of Russia's recent pledges have failed to materialize. The decrepit Jatibonico sugar mill, despite a two-year-old promise from Russia's Progress Agro to revitalize it, remains idle. Similarly, a $100 million Russian-financed steel mill, reopened in May 2023 with a promised output of 62,000 metric tons of steel bars for 2024, produced only 4,200 metric tons, according to Cuba's statistics agency ONEI. Other Russian agreements, including a 'Rusmarket' and restoration projects in Havana, also appear stalled or abandoned, leading American University Professor William LeoGrande to note that "Russia's promises have always been bigger than its performance."

Chinese engagement extends beyond solar parks to include a comprehensive modernization of Cuba's entire electrical grid. Following the inauguration of a solar park in Cotorro, outside Havana, in February, attended by Chinese Ambassador Hua Xin and Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel, at least eight more parks have come online, contributing nearly 400 MW of solar energy. This capacity already covers approximately a third of Cuba's midday power deficit. Shipping data and foreign businessmen confirm a significant uptick in Chinese cargo, including complete "kits" with fuel for overland transport, arriving at Mariel since August 2024. Truck drivers like Noel Gonzalez attest to the meticulous oversight by Chinese workers, ensuring project logistics.

While China's investments are a "big benefit" for Cuba, as noted by former U.S. National Intelligence Officer Fulton Armstrong, he cautions that they alone may not overcome the impact of U.S. sanctions. The discreet nature of the financial agreements between Cuba, China, and Russia makes it challenging to ascertain the exact terms of repayment or the involvement of private versus public financing. Nevertheless, China's consistent delivery on critical infrastructure projects, particularly in renewable energy, positions it as an indispensable partner for Cuba's immediate and long-term energy security.