Brussels' ambitious plans for a continent-wide hydrogen refuelling network are facing a critical reassessment following a new study from Sweden's Chalmers University of Technology, which suggests the current mandates may not align with real-world operational demands. The research, examining the implications of the EU's Alternative Fuels Infrastructure Regulation (AFIR) enacted in 2023, indicates that the requirement for H2 refuelling stations every 200 kilometers on major roads and in every urban node by 2030 could lead to significant inefficiencies and misallocated investments.

The Chalmers team analyzed traffic volumes and distances across over 600,000 EU freight routes, integrating topographical data from the European Space Agency to simulate actual energy demand profiles. Unlike previous models that often use average energy demand per kilometer, this study incorporated variables such as gradient and speed, providing a more precise basis for infrastructure placement. Joel Löfving, a doctoral student at Chalmers’ Department of Mechanics and Maritime Sciences, emphasized, "EU law is based on distance, but traffic volumes differ in other ways between countries. Many models use an average energy demand per kilometer for trucks. But the demand profile changes markedly when parameters such as gradient and speed are included. This gives you a more accurate basis for where the infrastructure may actually be needed."

The simulation results project that while AFIR serves as a foundational step, its parameters are unlikely to meet the nuanced needs of hydrogen deployment. For instance, the study suggests that France's hydrogen refuelling capacity may need to be seven times higher by 2050 than what AFIR mandates for 2030, indicating a potential future shortfall. Conversely, countries with lower traffic flows, such as Bulgaria, Romania, and Greece, might be compelled to construct infrastructure that will be underutilized, potentially incurring tens of millions of Euros in annual costs due to overcapacity.

This research extends beyond the 2030 requirements, offering a long-term perspective on sustainable hydrogen infrastructure investment. The findings are already influencing discussions at both Swedish and EU levels, with expectations that they will inform the upcoming AFIR review in 2026. Löfving stated, "At EU level, we have been able to provide feedback for the evaluation of AFIR that will take place in 2026, and my hope is to influence the development of the law in a way that takes into account each country’s specific circumstances." For Sweden, the study provides crucial insights into building an economically viable refuelling network that can foster a robust market for heavy-duty hydrogen vehicles. The implications underscore the need for a more dynamic, demand-driven approach to infrastructure planning to ensure the efficient and sustainable rollout of hydrogen as a clean fuel for heavy transport across Europe.