A new comprehensive study by researchers from the University of Hawaiʻi and other institutions asserts that Hawaiʻi's current strategy of primarily relying on wind, solar, and battery storage will not enable the state to meet its mandated goal of 100% carbon-free electricity by 2045. The report, titled “Assessment of the Scope of Tasks to Completely Phase out Fossil Fuels in Hawaiʻi,” warns that the status quo represents a “scenario of structured vulnerability and creeping collapse” for the island state’s energy systems.

Released this week, the study critically evaluates Hawaiʻi's energy transition, proposing that controversial energy sources such as nuclear power, specifically advanced molten salt reactors, and untapped geothermal resources are essential to achieving grid stability and energy independence. Peter Sternlicht, director of the non-profit Sustainable Energy Hawai‘i and a co-author, emphasized that the report's purpose is not to endorse a single model but to provide a framework for rethinking the state's energy approach. The research adapted a global fossil fuel phase-out study by Simon P. Michaux of the Geological Survey of Finland, which also funded the Hawaiʻi-specific analysis.

Hawaiʻi's existing plan largely depends on rooftop solar and large-scale wind and solar farms developed by third-party producers selling power to Hawaiian Electric Co. (HECO). However, this strategy has encountered significant obstacles, including financial strain on HECO following the 2023 Maui wildfires and broader uncertainties stemming from federal policy shifts. Discussions around developing a liquefied natural gas terminal for existing oil-fired generators further underscore the state's hedging, raising concerns about its commitment to the 2045 deadline.

The UH report directly challenges the prevailing narrative, suggesting that a sole reliance on intermittent renewables and battery storage, which often depend on rare earth minerals, is insufficient. Instead, it lays out nine potential scenarios, all but the status quo incorporating a mix of geothermal and nuclear power, alongside other clean fuels like ammonia and recycled iron powder. Some scenarios even envision a 40% reduction in energy consumption and the introduction of electric train systems across the islands.

While acknowledging the significant public and legislative hurdles, particularly concerning geothermal development's historical controversies and the constitutional requirement for a two-thirds legislative vote for nuclear fission plants, the report's authors and some lawmakers are pushing for a re-evaluation. Senator Glenn Wakai, chair of the Committee on Energy and Intergovernmental Affairs, noted that the study validates legislative efforts, including a working group established to study nuclear power feasibility. Wakai stated that Hawaiʻi is exploring advanced nuclear technologies, such as molten salt reactors, which he believes can provide substantial power with minimal waste and could be commercially viable within approximately five years. This report underscores the urgent need for Hawaiʻi to diversify its energy portfolio and embrace a more robust, long-term strategy to secure its carbon-free future.