JAKARTA – The Institute for Essential Services Reform (IESR) has unveiled comprehensive studies demonstrating the technical and economic feasibility of achieving 100% renewable energy electrification for remote Indonesian islands and enhancing grid flexibility across larger systems. These findings, slated for broader dissemination, underscore a viable pathway for Indonesia to meet its ambitious Net-Zero Emissions (NZE) target in the energy sector by no later than 2060.

Indonesia’s Enhanced Nationally Determined Contribution (ENDC) document outlines a target of reducing energy sector emissions by 358 million tons of CO₂eq by 2030. Achieving the 2060 NZE goal necessitates a projected installed capacity of up to 443 GW, with variable renewable energy (VRE) contributing 41.5%, complemented by 34 GW of Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) and 58.5% dispatchable generation. A critical prerequisite for this transition is the development of a national super grid to connect Indonesia’s currently fragmented electricity system. However, by the end of 2024, renewable energy installed capacity stands at only 14.89 GW, with VRE accounting for a mere 1.1 GW, indicating a significant gap against national targets. Infrastructure limitations and the intermittent nature of VRE are frequently cited challenges, emphasizing the urgent need for network strengthening and inter-island interconnection, which the National Electricity General Plan (RUKN) estimates will require an annual investment of approximately USD 2.87 billion.

IESR’s research specifically addresses these challenges by modeling 100% renewable energy electrification for islands not yet connected to the main grid. The studies reveal that Timor Island in Nusa Tenggara Timur (NTT) and Sumbawa Island in Nusa Tenggara Barat (NTB) possess the potential to fully meet their electricity demands from renewable sources and achieve NZE before 2050. For Timor Island, the optimal scenario by 2050 projects a generating capacity of 6.2 GW, predominantly solar power (97.1%), supported by a substantial 14.14 GW BESS system. This transition is estimated to require an annual investment of around USD 186 million between 2026 and 2050. Similarly, Sumbawa Island’s pathway involves 2.23 GW of generating capacity, primarily from solar and wind, alongside 1.96 GW of BESS, with an estimated annual investment of USD 197 million.

Beyond island-specific electrification, IESR also analyzed electricity system flexibility, using Sulawesi Island as a case study. The projection indicates that by 2060, VRE will contribute 42% of Sulawesi’s total electricity production of 119 TWh. In this context, BESS is identified as pivotal, expected to meet 72% of daily flexibility requirements. Interconnection and dispatchable generation, such as hydro and bioenergy, will provide crucial support for weekly and seasonal flexibility. The estimated cost for Sulawesi’s system flexibility ranges from 3.59 to 9.64 cents USD per kilowatt-hour, contingent on the contribution mix from interconnections and other flexible generation sources.

These detailed analyses provide critical insights for policymakers, investors, and energy developers. IESR plans to host a dissemination webinar to share these findings with educational institutions and stakeholders, fostering strategic discussions aimed at accelerating a clean, reliable, and sustainable energy system across Indonesia. The initiative seeks to encourage critical dialogue and open avenues for collaborative research and development in energy transition technologies at both local and national levels.