The Jadar lithium project in western Serbia, operated by British-Australian multinational Rio Tinto, stands at the nexus of Europe’s urgent green transition and a deepening geopolitical and environmental conflict. With the European Union forecasting a 40-fold increase in global lithium demand by 2040, securing sustainable supply chains is paramount. The EU, currently heavily reliant on China for lithium-ion batteries, aims to avoid a similar dependency on Chinese battery technology by 2030 as it experienced with Russian energy.

Jadar, holding an estimated 118 million tonnes of ore with 1.8 percent lithium oxide, offers a revolutionary prospect for the continent. If developed, the project could power one million electric vehicles annually and supply 90 percent of Europe’s current lithium needs, making it crucial for the EU’s battery manufacturing aspirations and resource sovereignty. The EU’s Critical Raw Materials Act has designated Jadar Valley’s lithium-boron reserves as a strategic asset, vital for reducing import dependence.

However, the project, situated in Serbia’s agricultural heartland near Loznica, has ignited fierce opposition. Local communities and environmental groups cite significant risks, including potential contamination of the Drina River basin, which could endanger drinking water for millions and leave boron levels in surrounding soils 14 times over permissible limits. Accusations of “green colonialism” and demands for greater transparency from the Serbian government have fueled widespread resentment. A September 2024 poll by Nova Srpska Politička Misao revealed over 60 percent Serbian opposition, despite government attempts to dismiss it as “politically motivated.”

The controversy has placed Brussels’ resource diplomacy at odds with grassroots resistance. Critics point to reports of Rio Tinto negotiating tax reductions before public consultations, reinforcing perceptions of opaque deal-making and sacrificing underprivileged areas for Western environmental agendas. Despite these concerns, the European Commission (EC) recognized Jadar on June 4, 2025, as one of 13 strategic critical raw resources ventures beyond EU borders.

The EU’s tactical silence on Serbia’s democratic shortcomings, including its status as an “electoral autocracy,” stems from a strategic imperative to prevent further Chinese and Russian influence in the Balkans. Brussels has warned that Chinese lithium must not become tomorrow’s Russian gas, leading it to tolerate what critics term a “stabilitocracy” stance to secure strategic relationships. While overlooking political dimensions, the EU has mandated strict compliance with its environmental standards, public consultation procedures, and ongoing monitoring. An EC spokesman affirmed that the project would be removed from the Critical Raw Materials Act list if EU conditions are not met, and Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has pledged to “respect and preserve the beautiful nature of Serbia.”

Ultimately, the Jadar project exemplifies the inherent tension between the EU’s climate ambitions and its professed commitment to democratic values and local well-being. Its progression, despite significant local and environmental objections, highlights the bloc’s prioritization of resource security, with long-term ramifications for both the Balkans and Europe itself.