Five years after the European Union committed to spearheading the creation of the world's first climate-neutral continent by 2050, backed by a trillion-euro pledge, a growing chorus of organizations, companies, and agencies are accusing the bloc of dismantling its European Green Deal through deregulation. Controversial proposals include expanded carbon offsets, loopholes in emissions targets, and delays in critical efforts to curb deforestation and promote cleaner vehicles. Critics contend that the 27-nation union, the world’s third-largest carbon emitter, is now beginning to mirror, rather than counteract, the rollback of climate initiatives observed in other major economies.

A significant part of the explanation for the EU’s apparent retreat can be traced to Sweden. For decades, the Nordic nation consistently championed Europe’s climate ambitions, but it is now experiencing a notable decline in its environmental progress. Last year, Sweden’s fossil fuel emissions recorded their largest increase in 15 years, while carbon sequestration by its extensive forests halved during the same period. Following a shift to the right in its most recent general election, the Swedish government has substantially cut investments in climate action. Researchers warn that Sweden’s policy changes, and its evolving role from a frontrunner, are actively contributing to the weakening of Europe’s overall climate agenda.

Numerous institutions have recently voiced criticism regarding Sweden’s environmental backslide. In March, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) released its once-in-a-decade environmental performance review of Sweden, stating that “recent policy shifts have created an uncertain environment for climate action.” The OECD projected that Sweden would safely achieve only one of its 16 national environmental targets by 2030—protecting the ozone layer—while failing on objectives such as “sustainable forests” and “reduced climate impact.”

Concurrently, the Swedish Climate Policy Council declared the nation’s climate policies “insufficient” and reliant on “optimistic assumptions.” In April, Sweden’s Environmental Protection Agency forecast that the country would miss all its national climate targets for the next two decades, including its ambitious goal of reaching net-zero emissions by 2045. Furthermore, in the 2024 global assessment by the German Climate Change Performance Index, Sweden’s “climate policy rating” plummeted to 41st, a stark contrast to its 4th place ranking in 2021 (and an overall drop from 1st to 11th). The independent monitor quoted experts asserting that “Sweden is backtracking from being a frontrunner in international climate policy” and urged the government to “maintain progressive climate policies.”

“We can say with some confidence that Sweden no longer pushes the European Union to higher ambitions,” stated Naghmeh Nasiritousi, a senior research fellow at the Swedish Institute for International Affairs and co-director of the Centre for Climate Science and Policy Research at Linköping University.

This policy shift is tangibly reflected in sectors like forestry. In Sweden’s southwest Dalsland province, amateur conservationists are struggling to protect old-growth woodlands from aggressive clearcutting. Surging timber prices, driven by the cessation of Russian imports, have incentivized landowners to rapidly harvest forests, often through practices that leave few living trees. This approach is controversial and places Sweden at odds with certain EU regulations, further highlighting the nation’s departure from its historical environmental leadership.