The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) has announced a dramatic reduction in the risk of summer power supply emergencies, with probabilities plummeting from 16% last year to less than 1% in 2024. This improvement is attributed to the addition of 9,600 megawatts (MW) of new capacity, predominantly from utility-scale solar (5,395 MW) and battery storage (3,821 MW), alongside minor contributions from wind (253 MW). ERCOT CEO Pablo Vegas emphasized the grid's strengthened reliability during a board meeting, stating, "The state of the grid is strong, it is reliable—it is as reliable as it has ever been."

The surge in renewable capacity has been pivotal in addressing the evening demand ramp, a critical period when solar generation wanes but air conditioning usage remains high. Kristi Hobbs, ERCOT’s vice president of system planning, noted that solar and storage have "greatly reduced" risks during these peak hours. Meanwhile, natural gas capacity has seen a net decline of 366 MW due to retirements and derates, underscoring the shifting dynamics of Texas' energy landscape.

Despite these advancements, political tensions persist. Conservative lawmakers unsuccessfully attempted to curb renewable expansion, while a $5 billion Texas Energy Fund was established to incentivize gas plant development. The first loan from this fund, a $105 million commitment at 3% interest, will support a 122 MW gas plant in Colorado County, set for operation by 2027.

ERCOT’s interconnection queue reflects the growing dominance of renewables, with solar and batteries accounting for roughly 80% of the 400 GW of proposed capacity. However, long-term challenges remain, particularly in balancing renewable growth with the declining role of gas plants. ERCOT meteorologist Chris Coleman also highlighted the escalating impact of climate change, with 2025 projected to rank among Texas' top 10 hottest summers. As temperatures rise, grid operators must adapt to a new normal of extreme weather and heightened demand.