Concerns are escalating regarding the long-term reliability of the U.S. electricity grid as a significant volume of dispatchable baseload power capacity is slated for retirement without sufficient firm replacements. A Department of Energy report, released in July, indicates that 104 gigawatts (GW) of reliable, dispatchable electricity, primarily from coal and natural gas plants, are projected to retire by 2030. This contrasts sharply with only 22 GW of new firm capacity currently anticipated to come online within the same timeframe, raising questions about the nation's ability to meet escalating power demand.

Industry experts and policymakers are increasingly vocal about the potential implications of this capacity gap. Senator Mike Lee, speaking on the issue, emphasized the need for a balanced energy strategy, highlighting the disparity between retiring round-the-clock power plants and the intermittent nature of many new renewable installations. While wind and solar currently contribute approximately 14% to the U.S. electricity mix, compared to 60% from coal and natural gas, the rapid expansion of renewables necessitates robust grid management and reliable backup.

The challenges of high renewable penetration have been observed internationally. In April 2025, Spain and Portugal experienced an 18-hour power outage affecting nearly 57 million people, shortly after Spain’s Red Eléctrica announced that renewable energy was meeting over 70% of its demand. While engineers often identify multiple contributing factors to major blackouts, the incident has fueled discussions among some experts regarding the risks associated with high reliance on intermittent generation sources without adequate dispatchable capacity or storage.

During a recent Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources hearing, Peter Huntsman, CEO of Huntsman Corporation, underscored the critical role of baseload power. He asserted that meeting growing electricity demand, particularly from emerging sectors like artificial intelligence, necessitates a return to robust baseload generation, identifying natural gas as the cleanest, fastest, and most economical option for reliable supply. This perspective aligns with broader concerns that energy security is intrinsically linked to national competitiveness, especially as countries like China invest heavily in energy infrastructure to support their own technological advancements.

In response to these concerns, shifts in the regulatory environment are beginning to influence energy project decisions. David Eskelsen, a spokesperson for Rocky Mountain Power, confirmed that recent adjustments in state and federal regulatory requirements have led to revised operational plans for the Hunter and Huntington coal-fired power plants in Utah, which are now not expected to retire within the next two decades. This development reflects an industry-wide re-evaluation of energy portfolios to ensure stability and affordability amidst evolving policy landscapes and increasing demand.