Major oil and gas companies are increasingly voicing concerns that the European Union's ambitious 2030 carbon capture and storage (CCS) target, aiming for 50 megatonnes (Mt) of annual CO2 injection capacity, appears increasingly unattainable. As the EU's Net-Zero Industry Act deadline looms, industry leaders indicate significant hurdles in project development, casting shadows over a technology long championed as crucial for decarbonizing heavy industries.

The EU's target, formalized under the Net-Zero Industry Act, mandates a substantial scale-up of CO2 capture and storage infrastructure within the next six years. This objective is designed to support the bloc's broader climate neutrality goals by addressing emissions from sectors like cement, steel, and chemicals, where direct electrification or renewable energy substitution remains challenging. However, industry representatives from companies with vested interests in CCS deployment, including Shell, TotalEnergies, and Equinor, privately and publicly express skepticism regarding the current pace of progress.

Key impediments cited by the industry include protracted and complex permitting processes across member states, a lack of clarity in cross-border CO2 transport regulations, and insufficient financial incentives to de-risk large-scale infrastructure investments. Developing the necessary pipeline networks and secure geological storage sites, particularly in the North Sea and other designated areas, requires substantial capital and coordinated regulatory frameworks that are not yet fully mature. Analysts suggest that the current project pipeline, while growing, is unlikely to deliver the required capacity within the stipulated timeframe without unprecedented acceleration.

While major energy firms have invested heavily in CCS research and pilot projects, the transition to commercial-scale deployment faces significant technical and economic barriers. The high capital expenditure for capture facilities, coupled with the operational costs of transport and storage, necessitates robust carbon pricing mechanisms or direct subsidies to ensure project viability. Current carbon prices under the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS), while at record highs, may still be insufficient to bridge the investment gap for all necessary projects, especially given the long lead times for infrastructure development.

The slow progress in CCS deployment poses a significant risk to the EU's industrial decarbonization strategy. Without a viable pathway for hard-to-abate emissions, the bloc may struggle to meet its intermediate climate targets, potentially leading to increased reliance on carbon offsets or more stringent, and potentially disruptive, measures on industrial output. The industry's growing doubts underscore the urgent need for streamlined regulatory frameworks, enhanced public-private partnerships, and innovative financing models to accelerate CCS infrastructure development and ensure the technology can play its intended role in the energy transition.